₦11 Trillion Customs Target: Is Nigeria Rewarding Importation Instead of Production?

by concern citizen

The Senate's approval of an ₦11.074 trillion revenue target for the Nigeria Customs Service may look impressive on paper, but it raises a troubling question about the direction of Nigeria's economy.

Where exactly will this money come from?

Customs is not a manufacturing agency. It does not produce goods. It does not create factories. It does not cultivate farms. Its primary source of revenue is trade, especially imports. 

Therefore, when government continuously raises Customs revenue targets, it inadvertently raises concerns about whether Nigeria is becoming more dependent on importation rather than production.

For years, Nigerians have been told that the country is pursuing industrialization, local content development, economic diversification, and import substitution. 

We have heard repeated promises about supporting local industries, protecting manufacturers, creating jobs, and reducing dependence on foreign goods.

Yet every year, Customs is handed a bigger revenue target.

The question is simple: If Nigeria is truly producing more locally, why should Customs revenue keep rising at such a dramatic pace?

A thriving industrial economy should gradually reduce dependence on imported finished products.

 More factories should mean fewer imports. More local production should mean less pressure on the ports. More jobs should mean less dependence on foreign goods.

But when government celebrates ever-increasing Customs revenue as a measure of success, it creates the impression that importation remains the backbone of the economy.

This is not an attack on the Nigeria Customs Service. The Service can only collect revenue from the volume of trade passing through the nation's borders. The real issue is the policy contradiction.

A country cannot genuinely claim to be reducing import dependence while simultaneously expecting record-breaking revenues from import-related activities year after year.

The danger is that Nigeria may become trapped in a cycle where government grows comfortable taxing imported goods instead of building a productive economy. Revenue targets may be met, but factories may remain underutilized. Ports may become busier, while industrial parks remain quiet.

The future of any serious economy is not determined by how much duty it collects at the border. It is determined by how much value it creates within its borders.

China did not become an economic giant through Customs revenue. South Korea did not develop by celebrating imports. India did not build its industrial base by depending on foreign products. 

These nations grew because they prioritized production over consumption and manufacturing over import dependence.

Nigeria faces the same choice today.

If Customs is expected to generate over ₦11 trillion, Nigerians deserve to know the economic logic behind the target. Is it based on stronger compliance and plugging revenue leakages, or is it based on expectations of even higher import volumes?

The answer matters because it speaks directly to the future of the nation.

An economy cannot import its way to prosperity. It cannot tax its way to industrialization. And it cannot build a sustainable future by relying more on what comes through its ports than on what is produced in its factories.

The real national target should not be how much Customs collects. The real national target should be how much Nigeria produces.

Until that becomes the focus, ambitious Customs revenue targets may continue to generate applause in government circles, while raising uncomfortable questions among citizens who are still waiting for the promised industrial revolution.